{"id":2365,"date":"2026-06-13T18:34:35","date_gmt":"2026-06-13T18:34:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/durhammovinghub.com\/?p=2365"},"modified":"2026-06-13T18:34:35","modified_gmt":"2026-06-13T18:34:35","slug":"analysts-update-prediction-on-ncs-senate-race-which-way-does-the-state-lean","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/durhammovinghub.com\/?p=2365","title":{"rendered":"Analysts update prediction on NC\u2019s Senate race. Which way does the state lean?"},"content":{"rendered":"

AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.<\/p>\n

Read our AI Policy.<\/a><\/p>\n

Political analysts now say the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina leans Democrat.<\/p>\n

Read more Why Summer House’s West Hopes the Knicks Lose Game 5 of NBA Finals<\/a><\/p>\n

But North Carolinians haven\u2019t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, when Kay Hagan defeated incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole.<\/a><\/p>\n

Nearly a decade later, former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat from Raleigh<\/a>, is facing off against former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley<\/a> to succeed Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican, in Congress.<\/p>\n

On Thursday, the University of Virginia\u2019s Center for Politics changed its rating of North Carolina<\/a> from a toss-up to leans Democrat \u2014 joining The Cook Political Report,<\/a> which made that same change in April.<\/p>\n

\u201cCooper\u2019s team is probably feeling cautiously optimistic, and I think this reinforces that,\u201d said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University, who has no relation to the Senate candidate. \u201cI think Whatley\u2019s camp is clearly going to argue that this is incorrect and anything can happen.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cooper\u2019s campaign showed that cautious optimism in a written statement to McClatchy about the change.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe know DC Republicans will literally spend hundreds of millions and do whatever it takes to prop up DC insider Michael Whatley, the Big Oil and Utilities lobbyist,\u201d said Jeff Allen, Cooper\u2019s campaign manager. \u201cThis race will be very close, which is why we are building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them in the Senate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Whatley\u2019s team responded with a statement of confidence.<\/p>\n

\u201cEvery cycle dating back for more than a decade, national \u2018experts\u2019 and national journalists try to prop up Democrat Senators in NC, and every year those Democrats lose on Election Day,\u201d said DJ Griffin, Whatley\u2019s campaign spokesman. \u201c2026 is no different.\u201d<\/p>\n

Roy Cooper has enjoyed double-digit leads in polling<\/a> over Whatley since the pair entered the race last July. North Carolina voters continue to express that they\u2019re unsure about who Whatley is. The former governor has held political office since the mid-1980s and was on television almost daily during the COVID-19 pandemic for health updates.<\/p>\n

Chris Cooper said the analyses reinforces what has been seen in the polls and data and felt on the ground, which is that \u201cthe election is far from over.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Pedestrian killed in hit-and-run off Buffaloe Road in northeast Raleigh<\/a><\/p>\n

He added that Whatley could still win, though the race is leaning Democrat.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think that is a fair characterization, and now that Cook Political Report and Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball \u2014 arguably the two most prominent election forecasters \u2014 are saying the same thing. It just reinforces it,\u201d Chris Cooper said. \u201cI also think both of these groups tend to be fairly conservative.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman authored Crystal Ball\u2019s explanation for the change.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are somewhat underwhelmed with … Whatley\u2019s efforts as the GOP nominee,\u201d Kondik and Coleman wrote. \u201cWith Trump\u2019s standing in the state double-digits underwater in multiple polls, we wonder if Whatley has tied himself too closely to the president.\u201d<\/p>\n

Whatley has been in Trump\u2019s orbit for more than a decade, having first served on his 2016 transition team, then as the NCGOP chairman and successfully helping Trump win the state. In 2024, he was promoted to lead RNC to help with Trump\u2019s campaign and stayed in that position until Trump tapped Whatley to replace Tillis on the ballot.<\/p>\n

But those leadership roles haven\u2019t given him name recognition outside of involved Republicans.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhatley is simply less familiar to voters, so it\u2019s easy to see conservatives \u2018coming home\u2019 to some degree,\u201d Kondik and Coleman wrote.<\/p>\n

But they offered this to both candidates: \u201cWhile Cooper, one of the strongest Democratic fundraisers on the Senate map, has handily outraised Whatley on a candidate-to-candidate basis, it is possible that conservative outside groups could help close the gap,\u201d they wrote.<\/p>\n

\u201c… This may end up as a razor-thin race by Election Day. But it also doesn\u2019t have to become that, and Cooper may just ride out the race and win by a clearer margin.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Rosie O’Donnell Writes Poem Detailing Visit With Daughter Chelsea in Prison<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Political forecasters move the North Carolina Senate race to leans Democrat as Roy Cooper maintains polling lead and Michael Whatley struggles with name recognition.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2364,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2365","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-read-todays-edition"],"yoast_head":"\nAnalysts update prediction on NC\u2019s Senate race. 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