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Maybe it’s a good thing N.C. State football’s trip to Brazil to face Virginia there fell through. It would’ve been a long flight back to Raleigh.
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N.C. State put on its worst season-opening performance in head coach Dave Doeren’s tenure, losing 34-8 against Virginia. It was only the second Game 1 loss under Doeren — its last a 35-28 neutral-site loss to South Carolina.
The game was rough to watch live, but it was equally difficult to watch — if not worse — a second time through, when the TV can be slowed down, paused and replayed. The second time through, glaring errors, misreads and deficiencies were easier to spot.
There were blemishes in all three phases, so the loss doesn’t fall on a singular player or position group. The offense, though, and quarterback CJ Bailey, had a far worse day than the defense or special teams.
Bailey finished the afternoon 12 of 23 (52%) for 84 yards. It was his second-lowest completion percentage in three years, and the 84 yards of offense was a career low.
According to Pro Football Focus, Bailey’s overall offensive grade sat at 34.1. That was his second-lowest single-game grade. His outings at Notre Dame and Miami in 2025 tied for a career-low 29.8 offensive grade. In those games, he still managed to throw for at least 100 yards.
As a team, N.C. State finished with a grade of 57.5 overall on PFF. That was the lowest among all Power Four programs and the fourth-worst among all 16 FBS teams that played in Week 0.
When breaking down the offense, it was second-to-last with a 53.3. The defense was still the last among P4 schools, coming in at 62.3, but it was better than three G5 schools. (Yeah, the bar is pretty low.)
Typically, numbers don’t tell the entire story. Unfortunately, the eye test seems to back them up. A test in which Bailey, who typically shows poise and resilience, failed to command the offense and settle into a rhythm.
That manifested itself in underthrows, overthrows, poorly-executed scramble plays and turnovers. Running plays, whether by Bailey or Duke Scott, didn’t take the offense far, either. The Wolfpack finished with a measly 76 yards rushing.
“(Bailey) was inaccurate at times. His guys didn’t get open for him at times. There was a blend of it,” Doeren said on Saturday. “He got pressured at times, and you know, it takes 11 guys to have a good football play. It’s always going to be the head coach and a quarterback to get the most after a bad game, and I understand why. But it’s not all on him. There are some things that he’s got to do better, and he’ll own that.”
The Wolfpack had a solid game plan and attacked practice well, Bailey added, but the execution did not materialize.
Virginia deserves credit, though, for its efforts. Bailey was inaccurate, in part, because the defense ran through the offensive line and pressured him the entire game. The Cavaliers recorded seven pass breakups and one interception.
On the first interception, UVA safety Brandyn Hillman moved to Bailey’s right after identifying the RPO. Fisher Camac, who was not guarded by a Wolfpack blocker, jumped up to swat the pass. Hillman’s read put him in position to intercept the football.
Ashton Locklear hauled in a would-be pass along the Virginia sidelines, but it was incomplete after he landed out of bounds. Defensive back Donavon Platt guarded Locklear in coverage.
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Locklear, Jojo Trader, Victor Snow and Tyran Warren also struggled to break from defenders in coverage, leading to mis-timed jumps, landing out of bounds and missed receptions.
Virginia was aggressive at the line of scrimmage, too, not only closing seams and collapsing the pocket but batted down multiple passes.
Jacobie Henderson broke up two of Bailey’s passes, one to Trader in the second quarter and another to Warren in the fourth quarter. Bailey was inaccurate on the throw, which limited Henderson to a breakup and not a possible pick six.
“They mixed coverages throughout the game,” Doeren said. “They played three buzz, they played cover two, they played man-to-man. They got big, long defensive linemen. They did a good job getting in the throwing lanes, but just didn’t see a lot of separation on some of the plays. When we did have some guys open, he wasn’t on. A couple times where we had a chance to get explosive plays, we just didn’t connect.”
On Bailey’s red zone fumble, he didn’t drop the ball. Hillman punched it out of his hands, forcing the turnover.
Bailey said this game wouldn’t shake the team, and it will learn from the mistakes.
But, for a player who has 22 starts with the same team, fifth among Power Four players, Bailey looked worse on Saturday than any of his other appearances. And, frankly, it felt like Virginia was more physical and had a better understanding of the weaknesses it could exploit.
The Wolfpack defense didn’t seem prepared for the variety of quarterback runs it saw against Beau Pribula, either. UVA’s quarterback set a new school record with 110 rushing yards by a QB, surpassing former Virginia and N.C. State player Brennan Armstrong. Pribula accounted for four explosive rushing plays and nearly half of all yards gained on the ground.
He finished with a game-high 91.2 offensive grade on PFF, which included a 77 run grade.
“We expected that, but we didn’t expect as many quarterback runs from him,” Popo Aguirre said. Though he didn’t specify if he meant the number of runs or variety of designed runs. “(They) played with our rules a lot; great player and had a good game.”
The second watch showed an inconsistent defensive front, too. Virginia has the most experienced offensive line in college football, and it controlled the line of scrimmage for most of the day. It moved Wolfpack defenders at will and opening up gaps for Pribula to run or find an open man. There were several plays when the defense looked lost and moving one step behind, which allowed Pribula to evade multiple tackles. According to PFF, N.C. State finished with seven missed tackles.
It gave up a 45-yard touchdown to wide-open running back Xavier Brown. The Wolfpack’s defense had no answer after lining up to stop Pribula’s run game. Virginia fooled the defense again in the second half, when Pribula found receiver Da’Shawn Martin for a score after a play fake.
N.C. State is off this weekend before facing Richmond on Sept. 11 for its home opener and traveling to Vanderbilt on Sept. 19. Based on the numbers and the vibes, for lack of a better term, the Pack has plenty of work to do.
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