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As children return to school and families return from vacation, COVID-19 numbers in North Carolina are going up again.
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Dr. David Wohl, an infectious diseases expert with UNC Health, said the numbers are just now starting to tick up, but this is the beginning of a predictable trend.
“This time of year, give or take a few weeks, we start to see more cases of COVID-19, and the earliest indication of that is wastewater testing,” Wohl said. “If we don’t see a continued rise into September, this year would be an aberration compared to all previous years. So we will see an increase, and then it’ll decrease, and then it’ll go back up again during winter.”
COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in 47 states, the Center for Disease Control reported on Wednesday, Aug. 19. Most North Carolina counties have growing infections, CDC data shows.
Wastewater data is used to measure COVID-19 levels. The data is showing the beginning of an uptick in cases, typical this time of year. North Carolina data on COVID-19 wastewater testing can be found on the NC Department of Health and Human Services website.
“I think the simple answer is probably human behavior, and that’s mixing after camp and getting back to school or summer travel,” Wohl said. “We see it after Thanksgiving for similar reasons of people getting together. So there’s going to be activities that we do that put us in proximity of other people that lead to infections being more readily spread.”
COVID-19 vaccines are updated to be effective against new variants, like Cicada.
“The idea has been, we really do need to update the vaccines a little bit, even more than the previous updates, to reflect the proportions of the variants that are not only circulating but more likely to circulate in the next few months,” Wohl said.
Updated COVID-19 vaccines are due out in September. Wohl said this puts patients in a bit of a quandary — wastewater numbers are starting to rise already, so people might already want vaccines.
“I wish the vaccines were out right now, but they are not. That’s unfortunate because flu shots are becoming available now, and we’ll see soon an mRNA vaccine for flu,” Wohl said.
The new mRNA based flu vaccine is available to people over 50 years old. Manufacturer Moderna will roll it out this fall, The Observer previously reported. Other flu vaccines have already begun to roll out.
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Wohl said most people will be fine to wait for the updated vaccine.
“If you can wait, you’re not traveling, you’re not going on a cruise, probably waiting a little bit until the updated vaccines come out makes sense,” Wohl said. “The updated vaccines will reflect better what’s circulating now.”
A new medication, XOCOVA, was approved by the FDA in May for the prevention of COVID-19 cases. This medication — different from Paxlovid, an antiviral medication used to lessen COVID-19 symptoms — prevents people from contracting the illness after exposure.
“I think this could be important, or especially for people who don’t really respond to the vaccines because of their age, or because of immunocompromising conditions,” Wohl said.
The medicine will also be helpful to people of normal risk, Wohl said, helping them avoid getting sick.
Wohl said both vaccination and other medication options are important because COVID-19 isn’t gone.
“If you look at everyone who died in the United States in January 2026, almost one out of 100 people who died in our country for any reason died from COVID-19,” Wohl said.
Inspired by a story from the Idaho Statesman in Boise.
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This story was originally published August 23, 2026 at 10:00 AM with the headline “COVID is on the rise in NC. Could we see a back-to-school surge?.”
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